Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. The shift movement had already produced some . Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. If Heyward had one or two games where he hit everything the other way, that would make this look way different, and thats why its too early to say anything. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. But even so, it seems like he has endured some bad luck on balls put in play. FanGraphs Mugs. The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. He looked like a pitcher.. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Then, showing off the kind of speed unexpected from a 6-foot-5, 250-pounder, Walker beat out a dribbler to third for an infield single. It happens. The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. Major League Leaderboards 2015 Outfielders Fielding Statistics This spring, Heyward has hit 17 grounders, and hes pulled all but one of them. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Heres a bomb to right. Heywards main drawback, perhaps only drawback, as a player seeking more than $100 million is his lack of power. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . Well know whats up by the beginning of May. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. Biggio knows right field well. Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. SUMMARY Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. Only Al Kaline, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Alex Rodriguez were within 15 runs on defense and ahead of him on offense. rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Indiana State vs Bradley MVC Tournament odds, tips and betting trends. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. Heywards defense and lack of power has the potential to confound, but stripping away the defense, we still see an incredibly valuable player with the potential to maintain or even improve his production. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com Signup . The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. Thats just how it goes. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. Some call it a sweeper. Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. fangraphs.com 1d. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, by Handedness. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . Hes still really young Heyward is actually the most accomplished offensive player in the group due to being worth more than 20 runs above average on the bases, but strictly as a hitter, these are the players with similar profiles. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. Team Offense, New York Yankees | baseballmusings.com Potential Dodgers shortstop options after Gavin Lux's ACL Injury The Cubs released Heyward. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and that's not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. For my ease, I took five-year averages for both WAR and the cost of a win when calculating the total. by Retrosheet. by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. Im not going to worry about it.. At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. by Handedness. So its difficult to shake the tinge of disappointment thats come to hang around Heyward in the past couple of years, not necessarily because hes done anything wrong he is, after all, just 25 years old and boasts a career .345 wOBA but because in him we see fantasy studliness, and cant help but feel let down each year when he falls short of making good on his immense potential. Theres a pretty good distribution of balls around the field. Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. What follows is going to lean upon some spring-training data. From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. by Retrosheet. Jason Heyward's Surprising New Strategy for - FanGraphs Baseball 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title: If youre keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. Taylor may also appear at third base in Cactus League games. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Just ask Jason Heyward. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Fantasy Fallout: With Gavin Lux Out, Could A Sleeper Emerge? Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000. He has slugged eight homers in 599 plate appearances as a big leaguer. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). UZRs range component agrees. But thats never safe against a hitter like Betts, who launched it deep over the left-center-field wall at Surprise Stadium. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. All he needs to do is stay healthy. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. Support FanGraphs. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches.