Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN Bellwether - Wikipedia In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. We believe this was a mistake. 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed "They followed through the whole four years. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. The matters that way on their minds are real. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight Contributors wanted After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. It is easy to gloss over this. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Trump won the other 18 counties. Found an error on our site? 108,000 people. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Their concerns are real. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. But both are worth watching. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election - WSJ Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Twitter Twitter The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. 4. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Their hopes are real. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. 7. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. They're just facts about the vote. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Nobody forgot about politics.". Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC Go on, look them up! Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. Read about our approach to external linking. Watauga has gone for. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. They simply vote on merit. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020.